Monday, August 28, 2006
It's Finally Here
College football season starts this week. It's my favorite time of year. It's uniquely special this year, as the Texas Longhorns open the season as the defending national champions for the first time in my lifetime. They are currently riding a 20 game win streak that will easily reach 21 before the biggest home game in the history of Texas fooball vs. Ohio St. Sept. 9th.
I will try to do a new post every Monday during college football season talking in general about the greatest sport in the world and the state of the Horns from week to week. For this week, as I have no games to discuss, I will discuss the depth chart released today for Texas.
The position that gets the most attention nationally is at QB, where UT attempts to replace Vince Young, the greatest player in the history of college football to never win a heisman trophy, the only QB in history to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in a season. Colt McCoy will begin the season as the clear starter, and it's probably in Texas' best interests that he finishes the year in the same spot. If McCoy doesn't finish the year as the starter, it means he has done something to lose the starting job, or that Texas has gone back to a QB rotation that destroyed their seasons in both 2000 and 2003.
Bunny Path: I have always been adamately against a QB rotation for several reasons. First, no team has ever won a super bowl or a college national championship while utilizing a 2-QB system. Second, it leads to lack of team chemistry, as all players undoubtedly have their own opinion about who should be getting the snaps. My final piece of evidence? Just take a look at all 8 of Mack Brown's Texas-OU games and how Texas did with a clear starter vs. how Texas did rotating QB's:
1998 Applewhite clear starter - Texas wins 34-3
1999 Applewhite clear starter - Texas wins 37-27
2000 2-QB system (Applewhite/Simms) - Texas loses 63-14
2001 Simms clear starter - Texas loses 14-3
2002 Simms clear starter - Texas loses 35-24
2003 2-QB system (Mock/Young) - Texas loses 65-13
2004 Young clear starter - Texas loses 12-0
2005 Young clear starter - Texas wins 45-12
Games with clear starter going in: series tied 3-3, Texas outscored OU 143-103
Games with no clear starter going in: OU leads series 2-0, OU outscored Texas 128-27
OK, on to the rest of the offensive positions. At RB, Selvin Young is listed as the starter over the more talented Jamaal Charles, but this means nothing, as both will play extensively and the better player on any given week will be given the majority of the snaps. At WR, Texas has 4 guys who will play extensively in Sweed, Pittman, Cosby, and Shipley, and Nate Jones and Myron Hardy will contribute but probably won't see the same number of snaps as the top 4. I think our best offensive play this year could be just lobbing the ball deep for Sweed, as he looks primed for a breakout year. At TE, Tweedie is a great blocker and underrated receiver, but JerMichael Finley has the ability to be a true difference maker as a playmaker for the offense. Finley is the best player on the Texas team that nobody knows about. On the OL, I expect the primary rotation will consist of the following 7 players: Tackle (Hills, Blalock, and Ulatoski) Guard (Studdard, Blalock, Dockery) Center (Sendlein, D. Griffin).
On to the defense, which will be relied upon heavily early in the season as the offense works things out with a freshman at QB. I'll admit I'm a little worried about the depth at defensive tackle, as I don't think the staff trusts more than 3 guys right now (Okam, Miller, Lokey) at a position where you need a minimum of four guys and an optimum of six guys to stay fresh. Candidates to be the 4th DT are Aaron Lewis, Ben Alexander, and Thomas Marshall. I see DT play as the key against Ohio St., as we will have to stop what will be a strong running game to beat them, and that all starts with the DT's. At DE, Texas is absolutely loaded, and this might be the first year in Mack Brown's time at Texas where we can get consistent pressure on the QB by only rushing the front 4. Texas has no superstars at LB, but once Sergio Kindle gets healthy and integrated into the rotation, we will have 6 guys that can all play multiple positions at LB. Texas will once again be very strong in the secondary, with 3 seniors that will all be in the NFL next year playing in the secondary, and the best DB in the nation, Michael Griffin, starting at safety.
The biggest uestion mark on the team is probably at placekicker right now, where both Greg Johnson and Hunter Lawrence have had kicks blocked during scrimmage work as a result of not kicking the ball high enough. After overcoming about 10 missed extra points last year, all I really want to see is for us to make all our extra points, make all FG attempts within 35 yards, make half of the FG attempts outside 35 yards, and not have any attempts blocked. Anything less might not be enough to win close games.
Now, to close this post, I'll give you my (objective) prediction on the season. As a Longhorn fan, I am not going to concede any games until the clock runs out and the Horns are behind. But if you ask me how the season will end, this is what I think will happen.
North Texas - Win big 55-3
Ohio St. - Lose 28-24 (Yes, they are inexperienced on defense, but when you play on the road, it's more important to have an experienced offense to deal with crowd noise, and Ohio St. certainly has that. When it comes down to it, asking a freshman QB making his 2nd career start to beat the consensus #1 team in the country is asking a little too much)
at Rice - Win big - 59-0 - Rice OC Major Applewhite will be taking option personnel and trying to implement a west coast offense. As highly as I think of Major, he obviously learned very little from both Greg Davis and his time at Syracuse last year when it comes to running an offense that best fits your personnel, even if that means running a different offense than you want to run until you recruit the type of players you need to do it.
Iowa St. - Win 38-17
Sam Houston St. - Win 77-0 (If Rhett Bomar actually plays in this game, it could be the highlight of the season for me. I'm rooting for him to be ruled eligible to play in this game.)
OU - Win 17-10 - Defensive struggle, with the difference being OU's terrible OL rendering their offense useless.
Baylor - Win 48-10
at Nebraska - Lose 21-17 - Tough road game, I have to pick one loss between this one and Texas Tech, and I pick this one because Neb. has a better crowd, better coaching, and a much better defense than Tech.
at Texas Tech - win 41-20. Typical of the last two times we've played them.
Oklahoma St. - 51-7 - the days of falling way behind to OSU early are over.
at Kansas St. - Win 38-10
Texas A&M - 44-14 - The dominance of the sheep screwers continues.
Big 12 Title game, rematch vs. Nebraska. Just like Nebraska did with us in 1999, we will avenge the road loss during the regular season with a clear victory in the conference title game to the tune of 31-10.
Too early to say on the bowl game, but the season I've picked probably leads to the Fiesta Bowl against either Louisville or TCU, two teams that we would simply dismantle.
I will also be picking winners against the spread for the top 10 ranked teams in the AP poll every week this season and tracking my record. I'm going to shoot for a 65% victory rate, so we'll see how it goes. Come back in the next couple days for these picks.
I will try to do a new post every Monday during college football season talking in general about the greatest sport in the world and the state of the Horns from week to week. For this week, as I have no games to discuss, I will discuss the depth chart released today for Texas.
The position that gets the most attention nationally is at QB, where UT attempts to replace Vince Young, the greatest player in the history of college football to never win a heisman trophy, the only QB in history to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in a season. Colt McCoy will begin the season as the clear starter, and it's probably in Texas' best interests that he finishes the year in the same spot. If McCoy doesn't finish the year as the starter, it means he has done something to lose the starting job, or that Texas has gone back to a QB rotation that destroyed their seasons in both 2000 and 2003.
Bunny Path: I have always been adamately against a QB rotation for several reasons. First, no team has ever won a super bowl or a college national championship while utilizing a 2-QB system. Second, it leads to lack of team chemistry, as all players undoubtedly have their own opinion about who should be getting the snaps. My final piece of evidence? Just take a look at all 8 of Mack Brown's Texas-OU games and how Texas did with a clear starter vs. how Texas did rotating QB's:
1998 Applewhite clear starter - Texas wins 34-3
1999 Applewhite clear starter - Texas wins 37-27
2000 2-QB system (Applewhite/Simms) - Texas loses 63-14
2001 Simms clear starter - Texas loses 14-3
2002 Simms clear starter - Texas loses 35-24
2003 2-QB system (Mock/Young) - Texas loses 65-13
2004 Young clear starter - Texas loses 12-0
2005 Young clear starter - Texas wins 45-12
Games with clear starter going in: series tied 3-3, Texas outscored OU 143-103
Games with no clear starter going in: OU leads series 2-0, OU outscored Texas 128-27
OK, on to the rest of the offensive positions. At RB, Selvin Young is listed as the starter over the more talented Jamaal Charles, but this means nothing, as both will play extensively and the better player on any given week will be given the majority of the snaps. At WR, Texas has 4 guys who will play extensively in Sweed, Pittman, Cosby, and Shipley, and Nate Jones and Myron Hardy will contribute but probably won't see the same number of snaps as the top 4. I think our best offensive play this year could be just lobbing the ball deep for Sweed, as he looks primed for a breakout year. At TE, Tweedie is a great blocker and underrated receiver, but JerMichael Finley has the ability to be a true difference maker as a playmaker for the offense. Finley is the best player on the Texas team that nobody knows about. On the OL, I expect the primary rotation will consist of the following 7 players: Tackle (Hills, Blalock, and Ulatoski) Guard (Studdard, Blalock, Dockery) Center (Sendlein, D. Griffin).
On to the defense, which will be relied upon heavily early in the season as the offense works things out with a freshman at QB. I'll admit I'm a little worried about the depth at defensive tackle, as I don't think the staff trusts more than 3 guys right now (Okam, Miller, Lokey) at a position where you need a minimum of four guys and an optimum of six guys to stay fresh. Candidates to be the 4th DT are Aaron Lewis, Ben Alexander, and Thomas Marshall. I see DT play as the key against Ohio St., as we will have to stop what will be a strong running game to beat them, and that all starts with the DT's. At DE, Texas is absolutely loaded, and this might be the first year in Mack Brown's time at Texas where we can get consistent pressure on the QB by only rushing the front 4. Texas has no superstars at LB, but once Sergio Kindle gets healthy and integrated into the rotation, we will have 6 guys that can all play multiple positions at LB. Texas will once again be very strong in the secondary, with 3 seniors that will all be in the NFL next year playing in the secondary, and the best DB in the nation, Michael Griffin, starting at safety.
The biggest uestion mark on the team is probably at placekicker right now, where both Greg Johnson and Hunter Lawrence have had kicks blocked during scrimmage work as a result of not kicking the ball high enough. After overcoming about 10 missed extra points last year, all I really want to see is for us to make all our extra points, make all FG attempts within 35 yards, make half of the FG attempts outside 35 yards, and not have any attempts blocked. Anything less might not be enough to win close games.
Now, to close this post, I'll give you my (objective) prediction on the season. As a Longhorn fan, I am not going to concede any games until the clock runs out and the Horns are behind. But if you ask me how the season will end, this is what I think will happen.
North Texas - Win big 55-3
Ohio St. - Lose 28-24 (Yes, they are inexperienced on defense, but when you play on the road, it's more important to have an experienced offense to deal with crowd noise, and Ohio St. certainly has that. When it comes down to it, asking a freshman QB making his 2nd career start to beat the consensus #1 team in the country is asking a little too much)
at Rice - Win big - 59-0 - Rice OC Major Applewhite will be taking option personnel and trying to implement a west coast offense. As highly as I think of Major, he obviously learned very little from both Greg Davis and his time at Syracuse last year when it comes to running an offense that best fits your personnel, even if that means running a different offense than you want to run until you recruit the type of players you need to do it.
Iowa St. - Win 38-17
Sam Houston St. - Win 77-0 (If Rhett Bomar actually plays in this game, it could be the highlight of the season for me. I'm rooting for him to be ruled eligible to play in this game.)
OU - Win 17-10 - Defensive struggle, with the difference being OU's terrible OL rendering their offense useless.
Baylor - Win 48-10
at Nebraska - Lose 21-17 - Tough road game, I have to pick one loss between this one and Texas Tech, and I pick this one because Neb. has a better crowd, better coaching, and a much better defense than Tech.
at Texas Tech - win 41-20. Typical of the last two times we've played them.
Oklahoma St. - 51-7 - the days of falling way behind to OSU early are over.
at Kansas St. - Win 38-10
Texas A&M - 44-14 - The dominance of the sheep screwers continues.
Big 12 Title game, rematch vs. Nebraska. Just like Nebraska did with us in 1999, we will avenge the road loss during the regular season with a clear victory in the conference title game to the tune of 31-10.
Too early to say on the bowl game, but the season I've picked probably leads to the Fiesta Bowl against either Louisville or TCU, two teams that we would simply dismantle.
I will also be picking winners against the spread for the top 10 ranked teams in the AP poll every week this season and tracking my record. I'm going to shoot for a 65% victory rate, so we'll see how it goes. Come back in the next couple days for these picks.
