Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Week 2 College Football Picks
Well, first things first. I went 6-4 last week in my picks, which I'm a bit disappointed with, but I look forward to coming back strong this week. About the only game that truly surprised me over the weekend was how terrible Cal looked against Tennessee, or how great Tennessee looked against Cal. I should have known ever since the 2004 Holiday Bowl that Cal can never perform when people are watching them. Let's be honest, their claim to fame is a close loss to USC in 2004; they have yet to win any games of significance to this day under Tedford.
While we're on Tedford, I would like to comment real quick on how overrated I think he is as a QB coach. Somewhere along the way, he developed a reputation as a developer of great QB's, but the reality is, he has a reputation as a developer of QB's who go very high in the draft and then end up as complete busts in the NFL. Let's just take a quick look back at some of the QB's who have studied under Tedford and a synopsis of their career in the NFL.
Trent Dilfer - #6 overall pick in 1994 draft. Career stats: 107 starts, 55.7% comp., 106/117 TD/INT ratio, 71.3 QB rating.
Akili Smith - #3 overall pick in 1999 draft. Career stats: 17 starts, 46.6% comp., 5/13 TD/INT ratio, 52.8 QB rating.
Billy Volek - Career stats: 10 starts, 60.3% comp., 26/13 TD/INT ratio, 86.9 QB rating. Not bad, but when you consider the fact that when he was finally given a chance to start, he performed so poorly in the preseason that the team put him on the trading block before the end of the preseason and signed Kerry Collins to take his place.
Joey Harrington - #3 overall pick in 2002 Draft. Career stats: 55 starts, 54.7% comp., 60/62 TD/INT ratio, 68.1 QB rating. And of course you have to mention he put up these awful stats in spite of his team drafting a WR with 3 straight first round picks and a RB with another first round pick. It's not like he had a shortage of talent around him to work with.
David Carr - #1 overall pick in 2002 draft. Career stats: 59 starts, 57.8% comp., 48/53 TD/INT ratio, 73.7 QB rating.
Kyle Boller - #19 overall pick in 2003 draft. Career Stats: 34 starts, 55.6% comp., 31/32 TD/INT ratio, 69.2 QB rating - benched this season in favor of Steve McNair.
Aaron Rodgers - thought to be in contention for #1 overall pick in 2005 draft, then falls to #27 pick in the draft, I'll give him an incomplete because he hasn't played yet, but based on this track record of other Tedford QB's, my guess is he will crash and burn like the rest of them.
OK, back on topic now, my week 2 picks against the spread:
GAME FAVORITE WINNER
Ohio St./TEXAS: Texas -3 OHIO ST
NOTRE DAME/Penn St: Notre Dame -11.5 PENN ST
Auburn/MISSISSIPPI ST Auburn -20.5 MISS ST
LSU/Arizona LSU -14.5 LSU
Georgia/SOUTH CAROLINA Georgia -3.5 SOUTH CAROLINA
OU/Washington OU -15 WASHINGTON
Clemson/B.C. BC -1 CLEMSON
CAL/Minnesota Cal -6 MINNESOTA
TEXAS A&M/uLaLa A&M -20.5 TEXAS A&M
Ole Miss/MISSOURI Missouri -8.5 OLE MISS
I will do my Texas/Ohio St preview in a separate column. A game of this magnitude deserves it's own post. Stay tuned.
While we're on Tedford, I would like to comment real quick on how overrated I think he is as a QB coach. Somewhere along the way, he developed a reputation as a developer of great QB's, but the reality is, he has a reputation as a developer of QB's who go very high in the draft and then end up as complete busts in the NFL. Let's just take a quick look back at some of the QB's who have studied under Tedford and a synopsis of their career in the NFL.
Trent Dilfer - #6 overall pick in 1994 draft. Career stats: 107 starts, 55.7% comp., 106/117 TD/INT ratio, 71.3 QB rating.
Akili Smith - #3 overall pick in 1999 draft. Career stats: 17 starts, 46.6% comp., 5/13 TD/INT ratio, 52.8 QB rating.
Billy Volek - Career stats: 10 starts, 60.3% comp., 26/13 TD/INT ratio, 86.9 QB rating. Not bad, but when you consider the fact that when he was finally given a chance to start, he performed so poorly in the preseason that the team put him on the trading block before the end of the preseason and signed Kerry Collins to take his place.
Joey Harrington - #3 overall pick in 2002 Draft. Career stats: 55 starts, 54.7% comp., 60/62 TD/INT ratio, 68.1 QB rating. And of course you have to mention he put up these awful stats in spite of his team drafting a WR with 3 straight first round picks and a RB with another first round pick. It's not like he had a shortage of talent around him to work with.
David Carr - #1 overall pick in 2002 draft. Career stats: 59 starts, 57.8% comp., 48/53 TD/INT ratio, 73.7 QB rating.
Kyle Boller - #19 overall pick in 2003 draft. Career Stats: 34 starts, 55.6% comp., 31/32 TD/INT ratio, 69.2 QB rating - benched this season in favor of Steve McNair.
Aaron Rodgers - thought to be in contention for #1 overall pick in 2005 draft, then falls to #27 pick in the draft, I'll give him an incomplete because he hasn't played yet, but based on this track record of other Tedford QB's, my guess is he will crash and burn like the rest of them.
OK, back on topic now, my week 2 picks against the spread:
GAME FAVORITE WINNER
Ohio St./TEXAS: Texas -3 OHIO ST
NOTRE DAME/Penn St: Notre Dame -11.5 PENN ST
Auburn/MISSISSIPPI ST Auburn -20.5 MISS ST
LSU/Arizona LSU -14.5 LSU
Georgia/SOUTH CAROLINA Georgia -3.5 SOUTH CAROLINA
OU/Washington OU -15 WASHINGTON
Clemson/B.C. BC -1 CLEMSON
CAL/Minnesota Cal -6 MINNESOTA
TEXAS A&M/uLaLa A&M -20.5 TEXAS A&M
Ole Miss/MISSOURI Missouri -8.5 OLE MISS
I will do my Texas/Ohio St preview in a separate column. A game of this magnitude deserves it's own post. Stay tuned.
